Place your bets…

This news just in…

After harsh criticism of its seasonal forecasts, and faced with further government cutbacks, the Met Office has developed an inexpensive new forecasting method. 

SlingoOne hears they could now be persuaded to part with their £33M computer.
;-)

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25 Responses to Place your bets…

  1. Brilliant! I bet the “experts” at the Met Office are wondering why they didn’t think of this first ;-)

    [Thank you - V]

  2. Bloke down the pub says:

    The Met Office still have trouble beating the accuracy of the forecast that tomorrow will be the same as today.

  3. outtheback says:

    That is for a good laugh.
    But seriously, they can really turn this into a betting game and get the 33 million pounds back for that computer. Fun for all those who play and the forecasts will be as accurate.

    • Verity Jones says:

      Hmm, you’ve got me thinking. Who says it has to be the Met Office should make money out of it ;-) Pity there are a slew of bingo-type games already called Slingo (I’m not kidding – just search for ‘Slingo’ without ‘Met Office’ or ‘climate’).

  4. Another Ian says:

    Verity,

    Many years ago (about 1965 – 70 as I recall) Iread an item in New Scientist (in Ariadne’s column I think ) on the possibility of generating a computer based religion.

    Amomg its features was a proclomation of mores diametrically opposed to what the general population was practicing,

    And an allocation ot rewards based on the UK premium bond payout

    And a wondering if the followers would notice the difference if told it was spruked by X and the software was written by Y.

    Sounds like something we’ve met.

    Unfortunately I don’t have the reference but someone else may have it.

    • Verity Jones says:

      Well ‘spruked’ (or ‘spuiked’?) is a new one on me, but I got it from the context and looking it up I was correct.

      That would be a reference worth finding.

  5. tom0mason says:

    As lot as they also bring in payment by results for Slingo’s team.

  6. Pingback: Newsbytes: “Dry Winter” Could the Met Office Have Been More Wrong? | Watts Up With That?

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  8. Joe Public says:

    “Take a chance ….”

    And spend your savings on extra flood protection + a BBQ.

    Great.

  9. craigm350 says:

    Reblogged this on CraigM350 and commented:
    So, so true.

  10. Why do we have an endless procession of “Leaders” who promote CAGW at every opportunity?

    Prince Charles, Al Gore, Ban Ki-Moon, John Kerry and all the way down to lesser light like Julia Slingo? What are they smoking that they relentlessly deny reality and common sense?

    Why are these “Leaders” idolized by the Main Stream Media while folks like James Inhofe and Vaclav Klaus are vilified?

  11. DS says:

    Oh cool!

    I only have the NOAA version so far, will have to make a point to pick up this new one from across the pond too!

    …in all honesty though, the game over here sucks. I mean it’s a straight pointless waist of money to play; the only people that ever win are the people over at Farmers Almanac =/

  12. mwhite says:

    Is there a British version of the Farmers Almanac?

    http://dailycaller.com/2014/02/20/report-farmers-almanac-more-accurate-than-govt-climate-scientists/

    “the book says it’s accurate about 80 percent of the time.”

  13. Verity Jones says:

    For all the forecasting power of computers and their ability in pattern recognition and models, humans can do that too, but have an innate skill, or instinct in these areas that allows forecasting in chaotic systems. This instinct as well as skill comes out in old forecasting methods, and those like Joe Bastardi, who study the past patterns. Computers use numbers and can be blinded by them whereas the human brain takes in qualitative differences.

    Just my supposition.

  14. Another Ian says:

    Verity,

    Last night I was reading “Red sky at night, Michael Fish’s satellite is on fire” in “The Complete World According to Clarkson”. The opening sentence –

    “I rang the Met Office last week and asked something which in the whole 149 years of the service it has never been asked before. “How come” I began, “your weather lorecasts are so accurate these days?”.

    This was asked in 2003 – should the Met Office be petitioning for their old computer back?

    • Verity Jones says:

      “lorecasts” eh – Freudian slip!

      Mind you I think Jezza has found the reason for the warm bias in long range forecasts: human intervention:

      Clarkson Quote

      …Or in this case “There’s no way it will be that cold/wet, Smythe, you know the climate models aren’t perfect…”

  15. Another Ian says:

    Verity,

    It was a typo, but sounds like I shouldn’t change it!

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