Update (1st April 2012) Latest versions of files added below.
Update (13th January 2012) Latest versions of files added below.
Update (26th October 2011) New summary and spreadsheet added – see below
Ed Hoskins, since emailing me last November, has been doggedly pursuing questions of the benefits of climate change mitigation policy (his original postings are here and here). Such was his zeal that his initial document grew to an unwieldy size. Like Tony Brown (tonyb), with whom he has also been corresponding, he has not been afraid to contact anyone whose knowledge or opinion would benefit his analysis. Recently it has been a privilege to follow an informal collaboration that started over on Judith Curry’s site in May with Tony posting questions in “The futility of carbon reduction?”
This is where readers of this blog can help, […] I am asking this question of those able to make the calculations;
Question: Temperatures are expected to rise by 3 degree Centigrade because of actions we have already taken. If the world collectively closed down their carbon economies what temperature reduction could be achieved?
The post notched up over 600 comments, including debate over the figures Ed had used. Since then commenter Max Anacker (manacker) has added considerably offline to Ed’s arguments by revising and refining calculations, and his input was also invaluable in ensuring the figures used are a correct interpretation of those used by the IPCC.
The email exchanges between the four of us (although I can’t claim much input) have shaped Ed’s writing into five accessible short essays, each 3-4 pages, that introduce and discuss the issues:
1. A history of worldwide CO2 emissions usefully discusses the background history of CO2 emissions growth through figures associated with the actions of groups of nations;
2. A simulation of a probable future for man-made CO2 emissions by 2100 provides a very simple presentation of the way the emissions are likely to escalate up to 2100;
3. The temperature effect of greenhouse gases compares different statements about the man-made contribution to the current temperature rise;
4. Increasing CO2 concentration diminishes its greenouse effect presents a quantified effect of the logarithmic diminution of CO2 as a greenhouse gas as concentrations rise;
5. The futility of climate control when a few nations limit CO2 emissions comments on the idealistic but ultimately flawed scenario on which all government carbon reduction policies are based.
Update 26th October 2011. Ed has emailed with a new summary document and a spreadsheet.
Update 13th January 2012 – Links to Ed’s latest files available for download, including *NEW* powerpoint versions.
Calculator – co2-emsissions-ready-reckoner-1-12 (MS Excel)
Update 1st April 2012 – Latest files available for download.
Calculator – CO2 emissions notes 3-12 (MS Excel)
Summary document – CO2 short ii (MS Word) or (PDF)