From what was begun back in December with a blaze of unwelcome light, Gallopingcamel (Peter Morcombe) has emailed with some output from his AR5 Zero Order Draft (ZOD) review.
Before getting to the opinions, here’s a bit of the backstory:
On December 12, 2011 some IPCC leaked documents were published on the Internet but within a matter of hours they vanished. Fortunately, I was able to obtain copies of the files so as to repost them on a web site created for that purpose. These documents can also be found at David Appell’s “Quark Soup”. On January 4, the IPCC requested by email that the ZODs be “taken down” and I complied.
In mid December, computers belonging to “Tallbloke” were seized. Tallbloke lives in the UK where such things are more likely to happen than in the USA. Even so I decided to postpone any confrontation with the IPCC until I had studied the documents. With that in mind a call for volunteers was made that resulted in a small team being set up to share the task of reviewing the ZODs. The IPCC has been informed that some chapters have been reviewed and that the files are once again available at the Gallopingcamel website.
The team has been looking at some of the chapters from Working Group I (WG1) The Physical Science Basis (chapter outline) rather than Working Group II (WG2) Impacts and Adaptation (chapter outline) not least I suspect because of the level of frustration involved in reading about impacts which are being attributed to increased CO2. With limited resources and to maximise effort they concentrated on “Executive Summaries” and chapters which were scientifically convincing or non-controversial. The output so far comments on Chapters 2, 3 and 4.
Here is an excerpt that sums up the issues very well.
The science presented with AR4 was mostly excellent. Even so, the “Summaries for Policy Makers” adopted an alarmist interpretation of the science even though many of the WG1 authors expressed commendable caution. The AR5 process seems likely to follow a similar scenario in 2013.
One of the more obvious problems is that the WG1 authors fail to provide context that would make it clear that the changes described have been going on for thousands or even millions of years with purely natural causes. For example sea levels have been rising at about the present rate for the last 5,000 years while ice caps have been slowly diminishing. None of this is remarkable or alarming. Without such context in the technical reports, politically motivated people can “spin” the top level reports to suit their agenda no matter what the science says.
You can download the review here: IPCC3b (Word Document; 4 pages).