Guest post by Charles Duncan
I have often claimed the Met Office is unable to forecast weather more than two or three days out.
I like to have data to support my assertions, so I thought I would see how well they did predicting last year’s rainfall.
Each month they publish a 3-month outlook, with estimates for rainfall for the first of the three months and the three month total. I took the first month’s data, so the test is of their ability to forecast in a window from one to six weeks out.